My Totally Rational and Not Overthought Oscar Predictions
If I get them right, feel free to celebrate. If I don’t, pretend you didn’t see this.
Surprise! With all the recent chaos, I completely overlooked that Oscar nominations are being announced tomorrow morning (just under 12 hours from now). Time feels more like a social construct than ever, but I could not resist sharing my predictions with you!
Over the past few years, I have surprised myself with how accurate some of my predictions have been (not bragging, I promise). This year feels particularly exciting because many categories are still wide open. Since I last talked about awards, so much has changed. And yes, you will hear from me again tomorrow with my reactions and more big updates, so you’re welcome!
After delays caused by the wildfires, Oscar nominations will finally be announced Thursday at 5:30 AM PT / 8:30 AM ET, with Bowen Yang and Rachel Sennott presenting. I will only be making predictions for the top eight categories. To create these predictions, I used the Award Expert app, which I highly recommend if you want to make your own predictions before the announcement.
The categories we will cover, in order, are:
Best Original Screenplay
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Director
Best Picture
To clarify, all nominations I predict are above the line. The ones below are “runner ups”, or films that could actually replace the fourth and/or fifth spot.
Best Original Screenplay
The first four spots feel pretty locked in for me, which is wild considering a few weeks ago I would not have included The Substance or A Real Pain. You’ll see how much love these films get in other nominations too. As for Anora and The Brutalist, they’ve been secure picks for a while now.
The fifth spot, though, feels more like a hopeful prediction. Over the past few years, Academy voters have shown a tendency to nominate an international film in this category. The screenplay category often has more flexibility, allowing films with slim chances in other categories to shine. That is why I am thinking All We Imagine As Light could follow the same path as The Worst Person in the World, which earned a Best Original Screenplay nod in 2022. Since Kapadia’s film will not be competing in the International category, this might be its best shot at a nomination.
I still have not seen September 5, but I know it has a lot of love among certain voters, making it a potential surprise nominee. That said, I am hesitant to put all my eggs in that basket. Challengers and Hard Truths also have fair chances, but I see All We Imagine As Light edging them out, especially with its Cannes win and its status as a beloved international film.
One thing to note: the Writers Guild has its own awards, but I wouldn’t consider them reliable Oscar precursors. Their strict eligibility rules, which require films to be written or produced by guild members, disqualify many of the contenders listed above.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Conclave, Emilia Perez, and A Complete Unknown are completely locked in. I know you might be wondering why Emilia Perez is in the mix which is a very valid question! However, the reality is that it is adored by many Academy members, especially Europeans. Its strong performance this awards season is largely thanks to the director’s esteemed reputation in France.
As for Sing Sing and Nickel Boys, I admit there is some hopeful thinking here. I believe this would be Nickel Boys best shot at an Oscar nomination besides Best Cinematography. It is truly sad to see such a magnificent film struggle with its rollout and campaign. Sing Sing, on the other hand, has a stronger chance, as its campaign has been more effective and has gained traction in other awards. That said, knowing the Academy, I would not be surprised if Wicked or Dune 2 takes one of these spots.
Dune 2 has also been under-recognized despite being one of the year’s best films. Sci-fi rarely gets much love from the Oscars, and there is speculation that the Academy is waiting to honor the trilogy as a whole with the final film, much like The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. However, some argue that Dune Messiah is tricky to adapt, adding uncertainty to this strategy. Either way, it has been disappointing to see Dune 2 overlooked this season.
The chances for I’m Still Here are pretty slim, especially with an international pick already in the mix. However, it remains part of the conversation, which is why I included it.
Best Supporting Actress
Now this is one of the trickiest categories alongside Best Actress. The precursors have been all over the place, making the last three picks feel like a free-for-all. The only locks are Zoe Saldaña and Ariana Grande.
I hesitated to include Felicity Jones, but with The Brutalist expected to rack up several nominations, I think she will make it in. The surprise here is Jamie Lee Curtis, who has been tirelessly campaigning for her role in Gia Coppola’s The Last Showgirl. She earned nominations at major precursors like the SAG Awards and BAFTAs. While I do not consider the BAFTAs a reliable indicator (they often snub even Oscar locks), this category often features a surprise nominee, and I think she could be it.
Danielle Deadwyler is my leap of faith pick. She has a strong chance, backed by solid precursor recognition. Many also believe Isabella Rossellini will be nominated, but I do not see it happening. While she is beloved in the industry and a critical favorite, she does not have much screen time in Conclave, and I haven’t seen the same enthusiasm from Academy voters.
Monica Barbaro feels like an underdog for her role in A Complete Unknown, but her SAG nomination earned her a spot on my list. Margaret Qualley, on the other hand, seems less likely, but the massive campaign for The Substance could give her the edge for that fifth spot.
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin is the most locked-in actor, and he will win for his role in A Real Pain. Yora Borisav is also a lock in this category.
I added Clarence Maclin because, even though he was not nominated at the SAG Awards, I think he has enough support from voters to make the cut. I feel the same about Guy Pearce. When The Brutalist premiered, many thought he was a frontrunner to win, but his momentum has waned, and at times, it feels like he has not even been nominated enough. Still, the film’s overall support and love for his performance should secure his spot.
I was unsure about adding Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown, but the film has gained a lot of recognition in recent awards, and I think he takes the final spot. Jeremy Strong might have a chance to sneak into that spot, but the possibility of that seem pretty slim, even with the recent inauguration.
As for Denzel Washington, his campaign for Gladiator II had momentum at one point, but it has faded, and I do not think he will be nominated. He was in the conversation earlier, though.
Best Lead Actress
This category was the hardest for me to finalize. I stared at it for a solid 20 minutes, and I’m still unsure. The ones I feel confident about are Demi Moore, Mikey Madison, and Karla Sofia Gascon.
Many doubt Cynthia Erivo will get in, but I think she will, especially with Ariana Grande likely to be nominated. Some argue she could be snubbed, similar to Margot Robbie last year when America Ferrera was nominated for Best Supporting Actress. However, I think Cynthia has a stronger chance of making it than not.
The fifth spot was incredibly difficult to decide. For me, it’s a toss-up between Fernanda Torres and Marianne Jean-Baptiste. While some predict both will make it, I do not see the Academy voting that way. A split vote seems more likely, with one narrowly securing the spot. I included Torres because I have noticed her campaigning slightly more, though I do not think that guarantees anything. Jean-Baptiste has BAFTA support, but I do not fully trust BAFTAs as strong indicators. Honestly, it could go either way, and I am grasping at straws. I’ll stop myself here before I spiral any further.
The craziest omission this year is Angelina Jolie. Early in the fall festival season, she seemed like the frontrunner, but her chances have faded due to missing key precursors. Pamela Anderson and Nicole Kidman have slim chances as well. Anderson could have been the 'big respected name making a comeback' pick, but that sentiment already feels covered by Moore.
Best Lead Actor
This category was one of the easiest to predict, and it matches the SAG Awards exactly. The first four are locked in without a question. I’m leaning heavily toward Daniel Craig for the fifth spot. He feels like a stronger contender than Sebastian Stan, who is competing for two roles, or Jesse Eisenberg and Hugh Grant, whose chances are much slimmer.
Best Director
I feel confident in my predictions for this category. If Denis Villeneuve were to make it in, he would likely replace Edward Berger. However, with Dune 2 not receiving as much love as expected, it seems highly likely that Villeneuve will miss out. Predicting this category is tricky without the Directors Guild Awards nominees being announced yet.
I truly wish RaMell Ross could be nominated for Nickel Boys because, in my opinion, it stands as the greatest directing achievement of 2024, alongside The Brutalist and Dune 2. Jon M. Chu trails slightly behind the others. While his chances are slim, they are not completely out of the question.
Best Picture
And last but not least, my predictions for Best Picture. This category feels shaky, especially with the tenth slot. The first nine films seem consistent across most predictions, but the final spot tends to rotate between Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, and September 5. I think Sing Sing has the edge due to Colman Domingo, Clarence Maclin, and its potential Screenwriting nomination. However, September 5 could sneak in, as it is reportedly loved by producers. That said, Sing Sing feels like the stronger contender given the factors above.
Just thinking about these predictions makes me shiver. It is such an exciting yet nerve-wracking feeling, especially after following the entire awards season. And it does not stop tomorrow. If anything, it gets even more intense once Oscar voting begins.
Well, I hope you all had as much fun reading this as I did putting it together! I will see you all tomorrow with either spot-on predictions or some hilariously off-the-mark ones (fingers crossed for the former!). Have a restful and easy night, everyone, and here is to the excitement of what is to come!